Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54bfabc35228b1a242824a8fe19b0d30b0409b26d3bca0812c3d77429e01a17c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 543.62$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 518.74$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 53c | 380.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.54 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 301.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 299.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 293.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 46c | 276.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…90edbacked Yes | 31c | 244.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 190.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 182.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 175.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 161.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 160.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 59c | 155.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 147.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 37c | 144.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 130.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 123.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 119.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 117.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 106.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes | 45c | 103.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 48c | 103.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 58c | 103.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 99.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Yes | 31c | 97.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 91.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 90.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 77c | 86.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 40c | 81.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 50c | 80.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 41c | 79.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 77.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 64c | 76.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 74.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 64c | 67.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 72c | 67.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 45c | 65.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 63c | 63.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 52c | 60.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 59.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 68c | 59.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 70c | 57.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 56c | 56.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 42c | 56.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 53.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 57c | 52.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 54c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 64c | 50.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 49.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 49.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 43c | 45.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 44.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 43.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 43c | 43.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 47c | 42.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 41.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 71c | 41.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 49c | 40.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 40.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 70c | 40.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 37.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 51c | 33.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 40c | 31.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…0ae2backed Yes | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.