TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9686…1701backed Yes3c845.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2435133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes30c240.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.311,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c234.64$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c184.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No58c173.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes46c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No73c138.87$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.781,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c129.87$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6742976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes36c128.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.841,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed No66c122.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes29c121.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1737835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes46c120.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c98.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Yes47c94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.212744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c93.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes31c93.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c91.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c89.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes32c84.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes45c75.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.262842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes34c74.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9566926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes28c71.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c68.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.892,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No66c63.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6621268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No65c61.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8423673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0535742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No51c56.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.715666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No73c54.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes34c52.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes42c51.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes31c50.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.439932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c49.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No59c48.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c48.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.964,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes46c47.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes33c45.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes28c45.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes55c44.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7843842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes28c44.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.527524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc705…b62fbacked Yes35c42.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c42.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.474,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c42.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.972,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes31c41.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.965628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked No70c40.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0615152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked No68c39.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.648940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No70c37.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No65c36.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…2de4backed No56c35.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.514856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes47c35.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.68067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.158955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed No71c33.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.467356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No57c32.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3226958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes45c32.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No51c31.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5112955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc9…c353backed Yes46c31.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes35c31.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No64c31.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No53c30.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.422,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No63c30.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2720161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c29.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c28.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.961,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No65c25.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1857264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No69c25.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.918257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.735058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No63c23.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No57c23.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No72c21.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2116764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No67c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes49c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No59c20.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.250261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c18.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked No66c18.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.296481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No66c17.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.053764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6760…6409backed No70c17.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.371952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed No65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.955641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.