Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c4745821e7f8a57eb59e06c2df73b98c027842b658c0123daf28150b6f5b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 31c | 20,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,799.83 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 0c | 19,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 33c | 18,248$6,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,244.04 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 12c | 9,999$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.88 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 6,709$3,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.46 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…ffa9backed Over | 69c | 5,797$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 3,682$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.37 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…e300backed Over | 71c | 3,521$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Under | 30c | 2,325$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.38 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 31c | 1,603$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 16c | 1,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.93 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 18c | 1,250$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Over | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 31c | 900$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 29c | 645.76$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.57 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 22c | 454.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 69c | 352$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 320.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 69c | 319.46$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 67c | 299.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 31c | 258.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 32c | 249$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 69c | 202.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 13c | 195.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Over | 70c | 184.31$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fdf6backed Over | 69c | 169$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…3406backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 30c | 148$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…be15backed Over | 71c | 144$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 33c | 126.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…2af1backed Over | 69c | 121.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…8593backed Over | 69c | 112.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…5baabacked Over | 69c | 109.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 105.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Over | 69c | 103.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 52c | 66.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Over | 70c | 65.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 68c | 65.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Over | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…3667backed Over | 69c | 58.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Over | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Over | 69c | 57.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 32c | 54.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…1f55backed Over | 69c | 53.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Under | 58c | 42.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 69c | 42.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 36c | 40.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…f435backed Over | 40c | 38.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…475fbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…8eb4backed Over | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…8f4dbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 68c | 25.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 68c | 25.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 69c | 17.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…d379backed Over | 69c | 17.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 74c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5this page
- US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.