Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c512e7a04d05387a265ff02ab4e70e50b5093402a785d4a7076122b0d5c5d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 31c | 1,899$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 75c | 1,216$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 62c | 1,089$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.39 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 73c | 462.26$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.23 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 342$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 255.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 222.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 211.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 179.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 34c | 177.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 163.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 29c | 143.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 138.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 133.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 127.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 118.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 103.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 103.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 102.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 100.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 25c | 100.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…0cedbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 91.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 27c | 83.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 81.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 26c | 78.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 78.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 43c | 78.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 50.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 27c | 50.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 67c | 46.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 45.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 34c | 39.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 39.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 37.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 76c | 31.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 74c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 21.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.