Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4656f1e2752e29074858a80e1fa3e139e8b10a696a1f81da3be170bf20c515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 971.56$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.91 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 45c | 856$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 60c | 839.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 38c | 448$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 31c | 375.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 328.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 65c | 320$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 218.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 195.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 179.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 37c | 135.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 35c | 99.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 11c | 99.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 15c | 94.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 37c | 90.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 89.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 84.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 75.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 68.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 61.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 36c | 55.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 47c | 50.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 70c | 41.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 42c | 36.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 35c | 34.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 31.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 36c | 31.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 30.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 37c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 50c | 29.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 54c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 55c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 55c | 26.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 65c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.