CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e0ee7526fd8cc63647b1836a0a90a8e08ebe763b5113d2d2c451ced3b87867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 4,450$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.6 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked MOUZ | 30c | 2,427$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.77 | 276 | 58%160 W · 116 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ | 30c | 876.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.75 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 669.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked MOUZ | 25c | 463.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed MOUZ | 26c | 452.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.33 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked MOUZ | 31c | 420.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.32 | 314 | 51.6%162 W · 152 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked MOUZ | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ | 48c | 383.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.63 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 354.4$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.08 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 338.77$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked MOUZ | 30c | 333.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked MOUZ | 38c | 305.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed MOUZ | 37c | 283.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ | 28c | 256.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.3 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 180$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 168.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed MOUZ | 28c | 147.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…8869backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed MOUZ | 27c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 87.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked MOUZ | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed MOUZ | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Aurora Gaming | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 202 | 58.9%119 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed MOUZ | 29c | 42.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 39.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed MOUZ | 57c | 38.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed MOUZ | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 316 | 73.7%233 W · 83 L | +23.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 26.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…2860backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 23.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…4f18backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group StageMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.