Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e97438b1231117b9663d1317689c339eed71605ee7287a5c0f3e7966e02358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 17c | 1,201$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 3c | 499$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 262.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 220.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 191.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 187.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 185.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 155.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 878 | 60.6%532 W · 346 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 150.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 142$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 121.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 119.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 470 | 33.6%158 W · 312 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 115.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 114.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 93.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 22c | 91.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 30c | 90.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 85.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 80.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 77.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 282 | 32.6%92 W · 190 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 80c | 73.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked No | 79c | 63.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 22c | 62.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 574 | 53.5%307 W · 267 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 20c | 59.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 57.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 50.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 48.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 47.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 44.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 37.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 34.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 31.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed No | 69c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 29.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 78c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.