Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf966e8ff49853d51fb101eefc75fcc3e243b296e11249d3dd9a3fe9b4e1e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 46c | 930.3$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 43c | 683$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.17 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 369.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 28c | 228.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 222$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 196.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 187.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 157.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 150.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 149$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 39c | 148.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 146.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 141.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 135.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 133.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 53c | 129.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 44c | 129$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 27c | 122.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 107.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 87.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 41c | 81.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 70.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 53c | 68.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 55.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 47.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…6a68backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 42.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 39.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 37c | 36.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 43c | 35.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 64c | 35.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 33.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 32.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 32.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 41c | 31.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 64c | 29.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 29.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 28.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 27.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 42c | 25.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 24.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…a7e5backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 24.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 63c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 62c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3ae7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.