Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f00e2f0f4fdd697032cf8355144e3ccc5c68a3770d533c85380fc044bb83e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 22c | 1,669$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.91 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 1,019$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 53c | 645.32$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.79 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 33c | 510.02$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 70c | 398.69$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 331.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 326.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 323.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 319.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 275.61$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 222.64$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 222$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 187.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 174$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 167$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 66c | 160.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 149$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 139.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 21c | 136.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 77c | 132.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 130.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 129.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 124.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 91.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 89.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 75.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 74c | 72.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 21c | 64.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 63.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 60.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 58.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 51.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 50.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 50.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 48.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 79c | 47.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 42.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 42.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 39c | 42.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 40.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 79c | 40.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 38.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 37.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 42c | 30.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 30.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 29.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 78c | 27.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 62c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3ae7backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 13.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.