Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55017d62b187ac5d3b0ca59e9e81c3ddc0213a0ae41ed26faed6134a54a0afa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 17c | 3,017$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 23c | 730.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 605.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 18c | 555.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 78c | 518.79$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.09 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 16c | 414.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 297.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 5c | 292.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +756.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 283.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 23c | 283.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 16c | 196.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 21c | 143.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 132.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 129.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 74c | 113.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 18c | 103.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 32c | 83.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Over | 75c | 58.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 63c | 44.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 67c | 39.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked Under | 42c | 33.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 76c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 76c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.