Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1dea68b73fb6be2ab34bc9ab0cc8c74315d58325987f0bd1852d788399359bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 23c | 6,509$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 78c | 866.24$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.12 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 809.06$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 716$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 79c | 641$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 456.88$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 155.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 143.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 22c | 141.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 137.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 94.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.