Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x550ef2ce5b0b7052b9f18b9ef60c0932c73f36aa1172ceeeeed27159c0d4c437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,094 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 512.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 2c | 496.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 457$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 15c | 411.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 349.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 260$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 201.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 181.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 9c | 162.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 158.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 148.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 80c | 125.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 26c | 102.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 74c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 78c | 96.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 19c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 89.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…4493backed No | 77c | 78.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 21c | 58.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 29c | 52.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 76c | 48.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 23c | 47.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…6d1abacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked No | 79c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 76c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 78c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…8c6dbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.