Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba89dcc449c2d1c71765f228e55eb62e7ac77e4041b8ee15cd03939f003fd89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,431 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 52c | 783.44$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.79 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 611.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 27c | 500.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.82 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 455.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 433.52$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.56 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 12c | 417.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.57 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 335.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 299.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 288.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 287.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 10c | 270.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.82 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 260$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 79c | 234.05$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 218.1$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 198.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…de22backed Yes | 19c | 152.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +137%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 146.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 141.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 70c | 137.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…05abbacked Yes | 42c | 136$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 12c | 120.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 9c | 112.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 13c | 107.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 79c | 106.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 104.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 20c | 102.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 15c | 99.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 20c | 99.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 14c | 96.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 24c | 90.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 84.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 15c | 82.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 81.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 70.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 22c | 67.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…a82abacked No | 57c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 57.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…9f06backed Yes | 25c | 46.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +294.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…094ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 31.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 80c | 31.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…cc81backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 59c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 78c | 14.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.