Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8728c233778ad1fd154dafd5a4a63325e5784ec531a946d65eb0974262018c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,300 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 949.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 17c | 615.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 346.36$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…de22backed No | 55c | 171.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +137%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 12c | 161.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 99.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 95.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 44c | 89.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 87.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 81.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 74.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…e0cabacked No | 71c | 70.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 53.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 55c | 52.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 48c | 45.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 49c | 43.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 40.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 59c | 39.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 52c | 28.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 34%73 W · 142 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 61c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 61c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b82abacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 51c | 24.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 58c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 53c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.