NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x552b22feccb8a5e25469f0a0fd9c9b1067dc3c3195cc4dd4a01c75a08b1be7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Over | 48c | 384.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 286$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 285.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 62c | 262.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…82c0backed Over | 33c | 240.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 33c | 237.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 32c | 228.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Under | 44c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…6c47backed Over | 33c | 146.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 67c | 140.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 38c | 133$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 40c | 99.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 80.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 32c | 78.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 69.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 33c | 44.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 65c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…4035backed Over | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked Under | 66c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…4acbbacked Under | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…af06backed Under | 72c | 26.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…6ce0backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…b60dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…ba76backed Under | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…2fc5backed Under | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Under | 67c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…2c71backed Under | 67c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5this page
- Panthers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.