NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa99e4898074988348f6df155a5271483ec30f27a22c501ca6f3edf47ec2425c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 65c | 1,833$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.21 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 1,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 34c | 999.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 755.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.45 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 34c | 670.18$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.95 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 65c | 551$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 34c | 453.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 35c | 272.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 34c | 261.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 65c | 187.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 36c | 146.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 64c | 129.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 36c | 129.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 75.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 37c | 68.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 67.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 65c | 65.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Over | 68c | 47.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 34c | 45.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 63c | 37.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…6c47backed Over | 64c | 36.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 74c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…bc44backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.