Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554776ec50134c6fd90d4d31b6e3da72eb3ea4a057c23bdbcc8651481c8f7a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 4c | 1,092$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 792.01$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 537.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 59c | 202.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 14c | 156.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 70c | 146.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 140.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 128.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 13c | 107.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 106.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 96.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 40c | 93.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 79.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 61c | 73.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 38c | 71.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 38c | 69.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 64.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 40c | 56.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 48.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 62c | 43.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 38.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 40c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 30.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 29.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…cbbfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 56c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 24.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 51c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 64c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.