Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe151e6d8bc1200ba6fc0a51ecba08ae66629ec68527af5ff4d86da4f544cd668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01d1…7e99backed No | 5c | 703.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 22c | 553.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 43c | 224.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 224.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 189.22$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 178.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 174.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 49c | 174.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 44c | 154.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 150.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 137.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 127.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 124.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 123.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 50c | 119.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 106.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 97.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 92.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 57c | 88.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 87.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 84.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 48c | 80.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 74.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 73.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 17c | 70.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 63c | 60.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 60.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 34c | 53.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 49.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 49.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 56c | 45.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 44.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 44c | 26.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 57c | 23.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 79c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.