MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5557e2701a1b0dcd59cbb64a295fa83637a2dd2bad2b2119916621b402db1b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 45c | 3,527$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.07 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 2,416$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 56c | 1,430$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.08 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 55c | 1,410$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.75 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 56c | 1,365$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.6 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 1,088$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 592.27$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 42c | 438.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 77c | 399$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 23c | 399$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 367.84$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 60c | 351$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 258.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 243.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 45c | 163.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 154.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 129.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 78c | 99.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 56c | 90.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 60c | 86.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 75c | 69.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 57.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 51.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 60c | 41.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 66c | 37.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 36.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 41c | 35.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 55c | 30.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.