MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840c2e08717fedfc77a8b910de89bb1daeba975440e24310175d66ef62d19fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 39,209$18,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,780.98 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 12,034$6,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,377.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 10,511$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 9,415$4,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 8,353$5,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.53 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 7,805$4,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,136.68 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 4,150$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 3,305$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.78 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 3,032$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 2,892$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 2,164$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.14 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,763$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.39 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,321$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 995.79$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 818.53$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 650$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 527$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 398.87$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 341.34$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 254$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 214$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 209$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 161.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 107.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 104.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 97.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 95.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 95.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 91.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 84.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 63.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 55.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 52.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 50.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 41.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…01e0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City RoyalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.