Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55729f2a608f15bc2a273c1361896ae43188ae6538f3574f67d7c918dc5ab32c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunderland AFCof Newcastle United FC, Sunderland AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 2,451$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Newcastle United FC | 21c | 1,499$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.84 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…d9bdbacked Newcastle United FC | 5c | 1,233$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 902$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Sunderland AFC | 78c | 515.99$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Sunderland AFC | 80c | 186.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…5714backed Sunderland AFC | 80c | 177.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Newcastle United FC | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Sunderland AFC | 80c | 121.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Sunderland AFC | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Newcastle United FC | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 69.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Newcastle United FC | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Sunderland AFC | 80c | 64.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Newcastle United FC | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 49.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…18fabacked Sunderland AFC | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Sunderland AFC | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Sunderland AFC | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.