Premier League · resolved market
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdefc2a6818cc13476b97f3a89ea6418b2ca710301f15024b318588c1e2486af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 75c | 17,397$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,397.16 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 25c | 6,850$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.59 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 4,593$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.78 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 79c | 2,848$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.1 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 2,579$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.93 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 27c | 1,999$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.85 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 1,406$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.33 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 7c | 1,249$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 117 | 27.4%32 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 73c | 850$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 616.44$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…3348backed Over | 29c | 439.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 426.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 10c | 255$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 10c | 212.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…ca40backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…217fbacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Under | 73c | 78.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 27c | 73.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…2403backed Under | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Over | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 73c | 26.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.