Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86aa8126cf68276cfb860c5871fdf3728ebe858ef1fbfce62acf26e30e0ed167

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,614 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	46,909$23,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,530.6	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over	50c	16,900$8,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,449.8	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	50c	11,086$5,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,532.35	506	44.3%224 W · 282 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over	51c	10,500$5,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,355	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	50c	6,727$3,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,363.59	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	5,465$2,957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,508.81	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	48c	4,200$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,016	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	49c	1,998$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.98	391	56%219 W · 172 L	+12.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over	50c	1,069$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	50c	1,034$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.72	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	49c	1,020$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.24	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	120	42.5%51 W · 69 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Under	72c	694.44$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.44	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	50c	684.13$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.95	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	610$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	26	76.9%20 W · 6 L	+5.8wins	+0.22per pick	55cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	50c	595.11$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.11	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	594.76$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.08	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	55c	436.35$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.85	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cef…d4debacked Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+7.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	51c	331.99$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.28	292	59.2%173 W · 119 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	36c	317.71$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.54	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	49c	292$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.47	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	49c	241.84$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.34	218	39.4%86 W · 132 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over	50c	222$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	495	44.2%219 W · 276 L	-20.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a4…554abacked Over	49c	210$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.9	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82e3…2151backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-6.7wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over	49c	199.96$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.98	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a51…bde9backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d0…ac67backed Under	63c	190.48$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.48	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over	50c	158.4$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over	25c	154.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	58c	137.21$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.52	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Over	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	117	36.8%43 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	50c	122$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	177	45.2%80 W · 97 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over	49c	101.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	328	22.3%73 W · 255 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b8…3539backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc53e…a45cbacked Over	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	42cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Over	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	114	20.2%23 W · 91 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9d…e565backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceda…e67bbacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfff1…d6dabacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over	51c	91.96$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.9	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under	50c	83$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.5	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+6.1wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	50c	82$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	357	43.1%154 W · 203 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	52c	81.67$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	257	52.1%134 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Over	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	86	53.5%46 W · 40 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under	51c	78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.22	313	59.4%186 W · 127 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Under	64c	75$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Over	47c	64.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	52c	58.65$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.15	655	57.7%378 W · 277 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95c4…a93bbacked Over	50c	46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a26…5cb2backed Over	35c	37.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.8wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Over	51c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	85	63.5%54 W · 31 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	49c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	191	33%63 W · 128 L	-13.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2348…9d10backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2394…9312backed Over	51c	21.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdaf…7556backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c08…5c69backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb7…142abacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x174f…4804backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	172	55.2%95 W · 77 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b65…2d9bbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2909…c95cbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event