Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x558fb38ae73d0c612cc5dd5d1436e1d2ca740602e8d24c0f4d24f91bf56ca4c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 4c | 5,604$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.21 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 4,604$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.87 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 5c | 3,664$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 3c | 3,600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…4362backed Yes | 1c | 3,342$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 19c | 1,975$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.25 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…7933backed Yes | 17c | 1,330$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 9c | 1,107$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed Yes | 4c | 904.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 2c | 892.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…ec37backed Yes | 5c | 836.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 3c | 800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…5f24backed Yes | 6c | 650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…60babacked Yes | 17c | 592$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Yes | 14c | 510$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…8b2ebacked Yes | 21c | 420$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…e484backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…781ebacked Yes | 16c | 296$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006e…0786backed Yes | 17c | 296$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…7d97backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…64babacked No | 79c | 117.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 63c | 85.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 77c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…47c0backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.