Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a62c5ad767bd177cb8194c027cdf6cbf1dc38fee87a7aa6434a74271e63524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 34c | 5,820$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.88 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 41c | 4,727$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.39 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 65c | 3,964$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.83 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…66dfbacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 48c | 1,244$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.92 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed No | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 74c | 886.41$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…a7dfbacked Yes | 73c | 800$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…28d9backed No | 51c | 680.92$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 49c | 680$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 56c | 624.88$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked No | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 234.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 48c | 224$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 56c | 209.84$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 24c | 202.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…e4edbacked No | 9c | 172.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 68c | 127.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…7b42backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 67c | 99.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 59c | 82.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes | 47c | 72.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…64babacked Yes | 78c | 70.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed No | 20c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…a764backed Yes | 43c | 54.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…f218backed Yes | 37c | 46.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d1…c4b9backed No | 58c | 34.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked No | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.