TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab51…2473backed Yes3c14,512$449 inLost-$448.8911813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes4c13,181$477 inLost-$477.1858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37c…0020backed Yes0c6,505$16 inLost-$16.3590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd137…2aa3backed Yes1c5,969$80 inLost-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c5,800$14 inLost-$13.9940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes2c5,659$126 inLost-$126.23454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes3c2,576$69 inLost-$68.8728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,365$78 inLost-$78.041,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad57…ccf4backed Yes1c2,279$25 inLost-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc409…4d2abacked Yes1c2,261$19 inLost-$19.31480%0 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f32…efb8backed Yes1c1,976$20 inLost-$20.15430%0 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ec…d630backed Yes4c1,584$60 inLost-$59.54729.7%7 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad96…8d49backed Yes3c1,298$44 inLost-$43.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes4c1,130$45 inLost-$45263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2305…04f2backed Yes3c1,000$29 inLost-$28.51120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c920.02$29 inLost-$28.9728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58bd…cd15backed Yes3c687.55$23 inLost-$23.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ef…462bbacked Yes2c646.73$16 inLost-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes5c500$25 inLost-$2590%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9abbbacked Yes3c468.75$15 inLost-$15100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes2c425.14$10 inLost-$10.08150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes4c364.83$15 inLost-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c6…5741backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes4c285.18$10 inLost-$105111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes6c258.45$16 inLost-$165016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$104341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.