TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox72c12,542$9,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,471.211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays27c12,119$3,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.234,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays35c3,870$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.7212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays38c2,893$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.3471650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox62c2,041$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.466,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox62c2,032$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.383,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago White Sox71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4351,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox62c1,291$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.582,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays39c987.88$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7739953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays39c986.59$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7738551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1905,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Chicago White Sox62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19045748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49e…e5e8backed Chicago White Sox63c396.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.839545.3%43 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1148,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays37c297.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Toronto Blue Jays28c242$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7634639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox62c202.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.762,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox64c177$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.668,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Chicago White Sox63c155.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.491,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Chicago White Sox62c149.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5795252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays38c136.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Chicago White Sox62c129.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0340449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox72c125$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Toronto Blue Jays38c108.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0870455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273d…fb63backed Toronto Blue Jays30c97.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3610658.5%62 W · 44 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox70c96.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.853,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Toronto Blue Jays38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2539149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Chicago White Sox59c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.742355.6%235 W · 188 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4935353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Chicago White Sox63c57.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1452947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago White Sox63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6245348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays37c39.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Chicago White Sox71c38.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1224843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox74c37.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox63c22.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2289950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x489c…1a43backed Chicago White Sox70c19.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox69c17.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.332,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8687370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.