Mls · resolved market
Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55afdd4b2e80d53614351edfd02bf050ed3f8a95cb317fd63637202e21a1d576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nashville SCof Nashville SC, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,567 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Nashville SC | 50c | 280$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…952abacked Nashville SC | 23c | 248.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…d323backed Orlando City SC | 77c | 248.14$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 53c | 211.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Nashville SC | 77c | 189.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Orlando City SC | 23c | 157.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Nashville SC | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Orlando City SC | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Orlando City SC | 80c | 75.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nashville SC | 25c | 67.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Orlando City SC | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Orlando City SC | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Orlando City SC | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Orlando City SC | 46c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Orlando City SC | 76c | 13.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)this page
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.