Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dbf8adb027e4d0a76dd6186bfab6164db9e385b7c9ca386f1e054f2a261f10b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 1,844$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.39 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Over | 24c | 1,600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,431$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.22 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 1,038$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.43 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 22c | 991.24$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.17 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 3c | 668.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 77c | 580.54$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.02 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 47c | 325.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 25c | 295.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 62c | 257.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 22c | 230.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 205.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 78c | 142.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 71c | 98.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 35c | 93.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 32c | 76.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 68.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 67.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…2dafbacked Under | 29c | 63.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 79c | 41.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…5d5fbacked Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 43c | 32.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 41c | 29.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Under | 76c | 27.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 72c | 26.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 63c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 63c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.