Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b052be1bbfc722cfc410efdd61c263310b6674eb6025f85e8f31616b04985c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,286 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,764$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.61 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 935.92$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.83 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 928.02$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.55 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 500.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 54c | 395.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 49c | 345.11$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 63c | 327.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 38c | 254.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 235.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 203.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…0161backed Over | 76c | 190.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 53c | 187.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 61c | 163.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 55c | 145.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 41c | 122.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 41c | 113.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 81.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 47c | 64.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 60c | 57.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 61c | 54.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 41.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 40c | 41.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 54c | 41.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 59c | 33.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 41c | 30.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 23.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.