Mls · resolved market
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e877ae8dc1c4761ec66d2188417d3cec8021b0ca0305516735c4276c37b56a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nashville SCof Nashville SC, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,779 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Nashville SC | 43c | 17,667$7,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,070.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 3,500$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 1,788$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.16 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a39…a189backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 1,275$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.75 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 470$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 367.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 175.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 109$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Nashville SC | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Orlando City SC | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Nashville SC | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 77.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Nashville SC | 61c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Orlando City SC | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Orlando City SC | 21c | 52.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Orlando City SC | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nashville SC | 77c | 48.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Orlando City SC | 58c | 44.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nashville SC | 70c | 42.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Orlando City SC | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Orlando City SC | 77c | 21.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Orlando City SC | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)this page
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.