MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c151b2b22575fa4943285ad55dc6bc85353b355eaa4a3de3557df180ea1d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 7,594$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 6,320$3,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,843.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 2,405$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 1,674$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 917.92$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 708.25$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 705.61$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.37 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 651$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.51 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 514.14$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 436.43$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 413.27$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 341.68$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 309.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 289$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 218.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 188.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 164$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Milwaukee Brewers | 10c | 124.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 101.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 83.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 81.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 76.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 74.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 69.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 42.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 29.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.