TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers45c7,594$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.034,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Cincinnati Reds55c6,320$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.9927254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Milwaukee Brewers45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Cincinnati Reds55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9977951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers44c2,405$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.892,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds55c1,674$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.176,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds52c917.92$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds55c708.25$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.711,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds55c705.61$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.372,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers46c651$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.512,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds56c514.14$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.24,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers66c436.43$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers62c413.27$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.548,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Reds56c341.68$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3447953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Milwaukee Brewers45c309.74$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7757046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds32c289$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.821,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Milwaukee Brewers45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b76backed Milwaukee Brewers45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers45c218.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.181,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers44c188.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.113,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed Cincinnati Reds56c164$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1621152.6%111 W · 100 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Cincinnati Reds57c133$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.191,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Milwaukee Brewers10c124.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3194648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5473849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds44c101.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4582551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds29c83.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds30c81.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.415,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers73c78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.815,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds54c76.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.742,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds24c74.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.222,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers73c69.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.762,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.863943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed Milwaukee Brewers45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cincinnati Reds57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Cincinnati Reds56c42.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8720654.4%112 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.912,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers71c29.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.033,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Milwaukee Brewers44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Cincinnati Reds69c22.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.974657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds59c19.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.071,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ec…a2f9backed Cincinnati Reds57c19.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.329256.5%165 W · 127 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.