Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Murray State Racers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e3c7e552531f5f4a7a1bcf15addd4adfe32b653b785101aa926671412152a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Murray State Racers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Murray State Racers | 59c | 8,000$4,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,720 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 7,766$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,581.98 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 70c | 2,264$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.02 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Murray State Racers | 59c | 1,023$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.06 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Murray State Racers | 58c | 790.83$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.59 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Illinois State Redbirds | 40c | 751.71$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.03 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 699.71$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.83 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Murray State Racers | 15c | 694.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 664.7$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.42 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Murray State Racers | 58c | 607.14$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.14 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Murray State Racers | 37c | 533.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Murray State Racers | 10c | 524$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Murray State Racers | 12c | 504.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Murray State Racers | 11c | 363.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Murray State Racers | 22c | 343$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Illinois State Redbirds | 38c | 315.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 78c | 275.12$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Murray State Racers | 40c | 255.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 250$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Murray State Racers | 60c | 191$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Murray State Racers | 60c | 174$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Murray State Racers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Murray State Racers | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 40c | 166.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Murray State Racers | 60c | 163.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Murray State Racers | 19c | 162$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Murray State Racers | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 71c | 112$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 100.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 96.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 52c | 87.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 68c | 81.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 77.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed Murray State Racers | 23c | 75.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Illinois State Redbirds | 40c | 74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Murray State Racers | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 35.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…8041backed Murray State Racers | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Murray State Racers | 62c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Murray State Racersthis page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 159.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.