MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5702c82f760c448ec5a4a9ab961e0872445f3cc0e997304169735bff5c3b0f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 54c | 14,793$7,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,964.41 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 46c | 10,049$4,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,426.63 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 6,545$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.41 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 3,771$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.96 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,973$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 2,002$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.03 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 1,546$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.27 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 59c | 647.87$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.51 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 626.3$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.68 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 615$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 609.06$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.13 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 491.01$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 482.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.72 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 421.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 379$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.87 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 59c | 338.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 61c | 252.27$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 207.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 192.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 42c | 179.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 163$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 148.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 148$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 137.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 107.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 86.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 51c | 79.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 45c | 66.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 42.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…ae4bbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 33c | 35.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…a3c1backed Under | 51c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 49c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 25.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…16a0backed Under | 72c | 23.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 59c | 19.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 59c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.