MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb372c4ee1e166caf63093452c1d4a563687a597f7ce1e300560c643fb808d200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb939…da70backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 36,785$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,785.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 32,221$18,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,825.45 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 22,406$9,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,995.72 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 12,000$7,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,140 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 10,267$4,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.92 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 5,811$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.7 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 4,843$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.37 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 3,758$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.2 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 464 | 51.1%237 W · 227 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,358$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.28 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 2,038$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.23 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,926 | 53.4%1,029 W · 897 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,226$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.53 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 1,117$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.27 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,017$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.78 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 823$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.07 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 762.71$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.63 | 581 | 53%308 W · 273 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 755$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.71 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 603.27$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.96 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 573.27$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 552$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.66 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 4c | 355.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 277.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.36 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 672 | 48.5%326 W · 346 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 184.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 633 | 47.1%298 W · 335 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 106$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 102.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,604 | 48.6%779 W · 825 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 38.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 34.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 33.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 579 | 44.6%258 W · 321 L | -35.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 27.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.