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Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,745

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4989…983ebacked Yes46c337.65$156 inLost-$156.1236426.4%96 W · 268 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes11c300$34 inLost-$33.552222.4%117 W · 405 L+27.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes18c245.53$45 inLost-$44.71,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c213.14$96 inWon+$117.614,48553.7%2,407 W · 2,078 L-17.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4343…8deabacked Yes25c204.62$51 inLost-$518859.1%52 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5673…32babacked Yes11c203.04$23 inLost-$234845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed No77c199$154 inWon+$45.4810939.4%43 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes8c180$14 inLost-$14.1367321.7%146 W · 527 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4710…4839backed Yes16c178.19$28 inLost-$28.133237.5%12 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes9c172.73$15 inLost-$156933.3%23 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No66c163.47$108 inWon+$55.211,97255.8%1,101 W · 871 L-36.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c159.46$31 inLost-$31.431,85327.6%512 W · 1,341 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes9c159.13$14 inLost-$13.5773338.9%285 W · 448 L+37.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c120$36 inWon+$843,03631.3%951 W · 2,085 L+40.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes24c109.75$27 inLost-$26.8248036.9%177 W · 303 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed No45c100$45 inWon+$5557036.7%209 W · 361 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8c…f777backed Yes15c99.71$15 inLost-$156251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes13c91.43$12 inLost-$12.221432.7%70 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No46c90$41 inWon+$48.96,93253.1%3,680 W · 3,252 L+424.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No39c64$25 inWon+$39.0489360.6%541 W · 352 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c63.62$45 inWon+$18.854,15756.7%2,356 W · 1,801 L+50.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked No79c61.63$49 inWon+$12.7111147.7%53 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No71c59.99$43 inWon+$17.42080%16 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cc…c67abacked No49c45.92$22 inWon+$23.424037.5%15 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c42.28$11 inLost-$10.9610,01045.9%4,590 W · 5,420 L-314.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c40$30 inWon+$10.43,84561.2%2,352 W · 1,493 L-34.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No66c35.05$23 inWon+$12.022,25556.9%1,284 W · 971 L+64.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed No49c24.49$12 inWon+$12.4956138.9%218 W · 343 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.266327.8%184 W · 479 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No78c19.99$16 inWon+$4.41,33934.1%456 W · 883 L+45.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.