Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Norway (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577f070615c19dbdc81ab4c2e2dfbd519b0f75cda183dfad9168b3cee11eb3d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Norway, Switzerland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Norway | 26c | 1,153$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Switzerland | 78c | 673.72$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.95 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked Switzerland | 80c | 625.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Norway | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Switzerland | 73c | 289.26$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Norway | 27c | 203.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Switzerland | 72c | 202.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Norway | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Switzerland | 75c | 154.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Switzerland | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Norway | 23c | 132.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Switzerland | 74c | 128.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Switzerland | 74c | 127.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Switzerland | 74c | 117.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Switzerland | 75c | 116.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Norway | 28c | 106.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Switzerland | 74c | 84.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Norway | 19c | 81.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Norway | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Switzerland | 72c | 65.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Switzerland | 74c | 52.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Switzerland | 74c | 47.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Switzerland | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Switzerland | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Switzerland | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Switzerland | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)this page
- Norway vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)Norway won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.