Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57866d56ae35db44a523215df90010582c1048f3e1100bad21c6ba7b5f18dfe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed MOUZ | 69c | 10,000$6,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120.6 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 4,287$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.12 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 3,344$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.65 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked MOUZ | 70c | 2,860$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 2,102$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.54 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed MOUZ | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Nemesis | 33c | 1,919$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.45 | 175 | 45.1%79 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 1,719$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.41 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed MOUZ | 73c | 1,368$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.28 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 1,313$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 145 | 15.2%22 W · 123 L | -16.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 513.16$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed MOUZ | 62c | 513.16$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 168.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked MOUZ | 71c | 154.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Team Nemesis | 37c | 133.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Team Nemesis | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed MOUZ | 63c | 103.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 80.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 61.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed MOUZ | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed MOUZ | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked MOUZ | 70c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed MOUZ | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.