Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x579771b9ed179c386136cf374c987390d42ff262c9e2fb7d9c55ba55e412654a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7761…f74bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,038$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 197.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 74c | 161.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 37c | 160$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 138.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 35c | 125.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 120.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 104$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 20c | 97.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 96.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 79.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 63.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 56.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 55.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 35c | 55.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 54.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 46.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 41.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 40.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 35c | 34.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 75c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 65c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 75c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.