Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57983808072937963ce794d7a6c9c2e37527f4be07bee673567e49459aea6c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 10c | 749.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 11c | 396.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 7c | 288.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed No | 6c | 244.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 78c | 203.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 9c | 161.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 8c | 140.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 16c | 124.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed No | 16c | 120.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 120.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 17c | 77.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 79c | 63.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 54.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 52.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 43c | 46.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…d759backed No | 35c | 34.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…8d23backed No | 58c | 33.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 33.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 70c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 69c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.