CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57bde8de1cedf66de1b913fa0c41ed9a4cc60a4d92ec63021a88a47da57ae85a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Under | 56c | 1,131$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.13 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 44c | 1,043$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.37 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 1,035$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.42 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Under | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…416cbacked Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 62c | 445.7$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.56 | 1,377 | 66.4%914 W · 463 L | +77.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…b366backed Under | 42c | 255.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 56c | 249.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 610 | 55.9%341 W · 269 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Over | 38c | 218.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 742 | 39.1%290 W · 452 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7da…43d9backed Over | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 271 | 56.1%152 W · 119 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 397 | 45.8%182 W · 215 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 41c | 104.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…61c8backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Over | 44c | 81.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 56c | 78.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2,030 | 53.7%1,091 W · 939 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 54c | 73.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 56c | 68.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 62.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7c42backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Under | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 194 | 54.1%105 W · 89 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 35c | 41.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 531 | 35%186 W · 345 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…af07backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 33.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 70c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked Over | 45c | 27.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 22.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 54c | 21.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…c297backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-InAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)HOTU won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.