CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01585988f7364d5624545b15cc6ad35b619015d32673015f07ddc97497884cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof Aurora Gaming, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 37,819$16,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,706.21 | 5,137 | 55%2,826 W · 2,311 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked HOTU | 57c | 22,934$12,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,961.49 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed HOTU | 55c | 15,081$8,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,786.24 | 417 | 49.9%208 W · 209 L | +20.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked HOTU | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,299.98 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed HOTU | 56c | 7,675$4,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.91 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…3220backed HOTU | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 5,145$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.22 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 4,207$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851 | 482 | 46.5%224 W · 258 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 2,666$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 2,047$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed HOTU | 54c | 1,750$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.16 | 670 | 48.1%322 W · 348 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 1,334$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 2,048 | 53.8%1,101 W · 947 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 1,210$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 410 | 44.9%184 W · 226 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 618 | 55.8%345 W · 273 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 1,070$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.8 | 351 | 43%151 W · 200 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked HOTU | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 819 | 44.4%364 W · 455 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HOTU | 56c | 888$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.72 | 1,149 | 49.4%568 W · 581 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 738.05$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.26 | 1,042 | 53.1%553 W · 489 L | +62.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked HOTU | 57c | 588$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.91 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…8e75backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 514.4$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 333.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 2,674 | 51.9%1,388 W · 1,286 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed HOTU | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 591 | 40.4%239 W · 352 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed HOTU | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,026 | 48.8%501 W · 525 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…708fbacked Aurora Gaming | 43c | 283.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 459 | 44.2%203 W · 256 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked HOTU | 57c | 231.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 922 | 45.8%422 W · 500 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 226.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 365 | 44.7%163 W · 202 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 50.9%138 W · 133 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed HOTU | 55c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…494dbacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 195.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 179$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 754 | 54.6%412 W · 342 L | +16.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 150.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked HOTU | 55c | 141.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed HOTU | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 119.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 365 | 38.9%142 W · 223 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked HOTU | 58c | 109.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 373 | 56.8%212 W · 161 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…3f0abacked HOTU | 59c | 80.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked HOTU | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 589 | 54.2%319 W · 270 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 75.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed HOTU | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed HOTU | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…fc3abacked Aurora Gaming | 43c | 56.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…0042backed HOTU | 55c | 53.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked HOTU | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 314 | 52.9%166 W · 148 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HOTU | 27c | 53.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3,262 | 50.3%1,640 W · 1,622 L | +97.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed HOTU | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 699 | 49.8%348 W · 351 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…9c5cbacked HOTU | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Aurora Gaming | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…ddc2backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…3e4cbacked Aurora Gaming | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 30.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Aurora Gaming | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 28.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…52febacked HOTU | 56c | 28.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed HOTU | 58c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…2e58backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 24.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed HOTU | 56c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,683 | 47%791 W · 892 L | -28.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-InAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)HOTU won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.