MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57daffba3f579d8dc29868a85ce86d329454ae0924c809aa3a25204971f73dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,570 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 1,985$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.49 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 1,169$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.11 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 783.99$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.25 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 536.43$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.77 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Houston Astros | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 56c | 269.6$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.98 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Houston Astros | 64c | 255.19$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 232.46$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Houston Astros | 12c | 196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 168.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 154$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 118.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 104.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 30c | 95.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Houston Astros | 20c | 89.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Houston Astros | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Houston Astros | 21c | 81.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 69.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Houston Astros | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Houston Astros | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…79afbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 48.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 56c | 46.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 46.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Houston Astros | 42c | 41.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Houston Astros | 58c | 38.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 29.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 28.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…ea6dbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Houston Astros | 50c | 21.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Houston Astros | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.