Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f18aa2e38d3491df4edca176790e3e5e04c50022fcd071cb94051bd8d5ec59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles FCof Los Angeles FC, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 1,607$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Orlando City SC | 44c | 1,546$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.1 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Los Angeles FC | 55c | 1,113$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.73 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Orlando City SC | 45c | 999.51$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.78 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Orlando City SC | 42c | 714$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.02 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 376.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Orlando City SC | 44c | 227$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Los Angeles FC | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Orlando City SC | 25c | 195.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 175.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Los Angeles FC | 65c | 171$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Orlando City SC | 46c | 162.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Orlando City SC | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Orlando City SC | 44c | 128.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Orlando City SC | 44c | 127.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Orlando City SC | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Los Angeles FC | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Orlando City SC | 44c | 71.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Los Angeles FC | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Orlando City SC | 44c | 65.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 45c | 52.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Los Angeles FC | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Orlando City SC | 44c | 42.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles FC | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…800bbacked Los Angeles FC | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Los Angeles FC | 80c | 28.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Los Angeles FC | 55c | 25.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Los Angeles FC | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Los Angeles FC | 66c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Los Angeles FC | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.