WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs Dream
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f5b11c8a288d29ff00efec8b15018caacb016a25e347fe93e186454df9bdff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dreamof Fever, Dream
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Fever | 33c | 2,683$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Dream | 67c | 2,617$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.83 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dream | 65c | 1,402$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.09 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fever | 35c | 1,265$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.73 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Dream | 62c | 1,241$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.81 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dream | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fever | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dream | 65c | 765.89$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.45 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Dream | 61c | 703.68$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Fever | 37c | 539.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fever | 35c | 526$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fever | 35c | 496$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Dream | 66c | 493$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Fever | 33c | 458$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Dream | 66c | 355$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Dream | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Fever | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 35c | 285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 35c | 285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Dream | 66c | 238.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Dream | 67c | 237.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Dream | 67c | 209.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Fever | 31c | 198.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Dream | 76c | 158.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fever | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Fever | 10c | 138.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Fever | 38c | 130.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Dream | 63c | 122.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Fever | 53c | 103.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Fever | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Dream | 67c | 85.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Fever | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…7619backed Fever | 35c | 70.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Fever | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Dream | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Dream | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dream | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Dream | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Dream | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.