Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580f21519074b526e6cfa6e118d96d2893d1429049f924436b51754cf156b701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 18c | 316.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 234.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Yes | 24c | 135.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…abf7backed Yes | 30c | 123.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…3035backed Yes | 24c | 114.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 106.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 104.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 104.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 90.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 19c | 81.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 69.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 75c | 63.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 24c | 60.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 28c | 50.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 77c | 48.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 75c | 45.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 35.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 60c | 26.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 76c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.