College Football · resolved market
Spread: UNLV (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58198217256db620203e56dc8b6f2714ddb28ee01ed9a15eec6f6421370df97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof UNLV, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked UNLV | 45c | 45,000$20,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,564.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawaii | 55c | 43,960$24,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,172.57 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii | 55c | 22,042$12,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,176.74 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UNLV | 45c | 13,500$6,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,450 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed UNLV | 43c | 13,226$5,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,538.85 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Hawaii | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed UNLV | 45c | 8,780$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,829 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawaii | 57c | 5,026$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.39 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed UNLV | 46c | 4,500$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Hawaii | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed UNLV | 44c | 2,261$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed UNLV | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Hawaii | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Hawaii | 57c | 464$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked UNLV | 44c | 375$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…38cebacked UNLV | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UNLV | 44c | 215.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed UNLV | 45c | 200.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Hawaii | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked UNLV | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked UNLV | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hawaii | 55c | 154.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Hawaii | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed UNLV | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…579ebacked Hawaii | 59c | 109.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed UNLV | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed UNLV | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked UNLV | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Hawaii | 57c | 88.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Hawaii | 54c | 83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawaii | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hawaii | 56c | 76.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked UNLV | 47c | 59.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…7f58backed UNLV | 44c | 55.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hawaii | 54c | 52.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawaii | 57c | 50.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed UNLV | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Hawaii | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked UNLV | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…d6dbbacked Hawaii | 57c | 44.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked UNLV | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…aa0bbacked UNLV | 45c | 43.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Hawaii | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9c06backed UNLV | 46c | 35.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked UNLV | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed UNLV | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed UNLV | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed UNLV | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawaii | 53c | 22.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Hawaii | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Hawaii | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UNLV (-3.5)this page
- Hawaii vs. UNLVUNLV won
- O/U 64.5Under won
- Spread: UNLV (-2.5)UNLV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.