Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584e3b1182f8c41bdd2503d427a7795e2eec94d6f0ee1a9f568e874c048a3f40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience | 34c | 761.81$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.81 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Yakult Brothers | 65c | 734.03$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.92 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yakult Brothers | 11c | 380.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Resilience | 33c | 319.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.48 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 292.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Team Resilience | 33c | 175.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yakult Brothers | 11c | 174.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Yakult Brothers | 67c | 152$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Team Resilience | 35c | 116.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Team Resilience | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…f815backed Yakult Brothers | 66c | 93.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…4ff2backed Team Resilience | 33c | 73.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Resilience | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yakult Brothers | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Team Resilience | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yakult Brothers | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Yakult Brothers | 66c | 41.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Team Resilience | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yakult Brothers | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Yakult Brothers | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.