TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Yakult Brothers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37d9…9b1ebacked Yakult Brothers62c15,978$9,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,863.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Yakult Brothers6c11,081$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.2519338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience60c10,731$6,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.621,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Resilience66c7,584$5,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.1453764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yakult Brothers3c5,873$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yakult Brothers23c4,707$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.995253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Yakult Brothers17c4,430$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.9233453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Yakult Brothers27c4,211$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.6388539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Resilience67c3,750$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.6935960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Resilience66c3,708$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.5520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Yakult Brothers23c3,364$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.261,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yakult Brothers1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Yakult Brothers16c2,742$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8820767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Yakult Brothers38c2,599$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yakult Brothers36c2,484$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.0286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Resilience80c2,175$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.4479859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Yakult Brothers4c2,150$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.613323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Resilience68c2,068$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.8980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Yakult Brothers38c1,898$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.1295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Yakult Brothers35c1,843$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.5425549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Yakult Brothers39c1,781$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.5241056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Yakult Brothers17c1,511$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8622031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Team Resilience41c1,462$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.581968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Yakult Brothers16c1,415$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Resilience72c1,312$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.5912557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yakult Brothers36c1,280$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.131,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x158e…216bbacked Yakult Brothers4c1,225$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468457.1%48 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Resilience66c1,217$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.21,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Yakult Brothers45c1,216$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.473762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yakult Brothers26c1,155$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.18040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Yakult Brothers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Resilience50c922$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46128347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Yakult Brothers34c891.21$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.932334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Resilience41c872.5$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.321,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yakult Brothers39c838.16$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.982,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Yakult Brothers36c833$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8810741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Yakult Brothers31c825$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.57733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Team Resilience71c813.99$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.147243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Resilience77c799.99$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.351364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Yakult Brothers39c773.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed Yakult Brothers40c719.72$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28810039%39 W · 61 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Yakult Brothers23c705.86$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.481,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Yakult Brothers37c700$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2593658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Resilience69c685.76$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.761,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Resilience66c673.98$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1558356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Yakult Brothers12c650$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5201…d9d6backed Team Resilience20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8f…3ce9backed Team Resilience20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba4…9e2dbacked Team Resilience20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+95.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e5…0cadbacked Team Resilience20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked Team Resilience20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Yakult Brothers9c599.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5473743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Yakult Brothers33c585.61$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.323951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Team Resilience65c550$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.531055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Yakult Brothers15c550$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8253758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Team Resilience68c526.04$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4245352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Yakult Brothers34c517.57$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9733549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Team Resilience63c511.11$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1117251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb4c…f815backed Yakult Brothers43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414c…80c7backed Team Resilience55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+75.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Yakult Brothers38c499.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Resilience73c481.63$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yakult Brothers36c464.06$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.549340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Team Resilience64c454.48$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9514763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Yakult Brothers34c449.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15359254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Resilience79c430.82$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.831,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Yakult Brothers40c415.38$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1664025%10 W · 30 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yakult Brothers35c410.69$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.747541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Resilience74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4123561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Team Resilience29c403$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9528336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Team Resilience29c403$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9521748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Team Resilience29c403$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9525351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yakult Brothers39c381.88$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Yakult Brothers39c381.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yakult Brothers41c377.35$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.331,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Yakult Brothers27c371.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Yakult Brothers36c350.03$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1269543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Yakult Brothers41c340.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Team Resilience67c338.05$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6648054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed Yakult Brothers44c333$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.521225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Team Resilience27c325$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2384337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Team Resilience27c325$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2384742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Team Resilience27c325$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2389150.5%46 W · 45 L+12.5wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+23.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5bb2…97edbacked Team Resilience63c318.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Team Resilience76c317.41$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4118356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5618…f2c0backed Yakult Brothers21c310$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Resilience79c300.59$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9956343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yakult Brothers14c274.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.554910.2%5 W · 44 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Yakult Brothers44c271.33$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddc6…13c4backed Yakult Brothers15c251.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811449.1%56 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb16b…3a57backed Team Resilience61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed Yakult Brothers12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yakult Brothers15c249$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54fa…2c2ebacked Yakult Brothers27c237.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643828.9%11 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yakult Brothers8c229.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2716553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Yakult Brothers31c200.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Resilience60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8045951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yakult Brothers43c199.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.855653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe34f…40ffbacked Yakult Brothers5c190$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Yakult Brothers27c170$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.931545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.