Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5897199cbe4af80739d403bfc51315eb870a819fe254a9176b5752d7e8f37152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 39c | 825.13$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 33c | 569.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…1673backed Yes | 69c | 520.53$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 14c | 513.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 16c | 393.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 60c | 311.56$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 67c | 237.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 7c | 228.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 12c | 199.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 9c | 179.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…160ebacked Yes | 80c | 162.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…5a2abacked Yes | 64c | 157.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked Yes | 66c | 151.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 85.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…e78abacked Yes | 66c | 82.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…ee1abacked Yes | 53c | 72.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 63.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…072cbacked Yes | 53c | 55.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 29c | 52.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…068dbacked Yes | 80c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 70c | 35.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 25.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…2753backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.